Solving the Iraqi Quagmire

There are few problems more complex than Iraq at the moment. Stripping away all the clutter and we have two options. Stay or Go. Staying is not an option. The high cost of the war and the growing opposition of the people and politicians to remaining in Iraq means that the coalition of the willing will have to find a way to exit Iraq.

However before an exit can be achieved, there is still the very real possibility that a victory of sorts can be claimed. Irregardless of what you believe was the purpose of the war (the search for Weapons of mass destruction, to remove Saddam, to stabilise oil supply for America etc), Iraq has now become the focus and the battleground for western values versus Islamic Extremism. On one side we have those who are trying to setup and form an Iraqi Government with Western values and on the other we have Al Qaeda / Islamic extremists determined to induce an Islamic Government with Sharia Law.

The stakes for both sides couldn't be higher. A clear victory for one or the other will give credence to their policies. For America, a win will increase their power vis a vis rogue nations. For the Islamic Extremists, a win will spur on their activities in other arena's.

So now that we know we are leaving Iraq, how do we leave without handing the victory to Al Qaeda? A victory for America can only be claimed if three conditions are met:

1. A free Iraq - in the sense that the Government is representative of the people, and work for ALL the people.

2. Democratic - That the government has been elected by the people.

3. Stability - The government, and hence Iraq, is stable and relatively secure.

Only then can it be claimed that Extremism, in whatever guise has been defeated.

It is clear that the very act of remaining in Iraq breeches the first two conditions. So how do we achieve these aims and at the same time withdraw from Iraq? How do we pull out, and not hand a ready made power vacuum for Al Qaeda / extremists to launch a power struggle within Iraq, leading to possibly the most brutal civil war?

Again, by simplifying the matter we have two options:

1. A sudden withdrawal of Troops.

A sudden withdrawal of troops at this stage will leave the Iraqi government and armed forces helpless against extremists. Iraq would be plunged into civil war. To have a complete withdrawal, without leaving a structure behind for the defence of civilians, would in my opinion be a crime far worse than the actual invasion of Iraq.

2. A phased / planned withdrawal of troops.

Is the only real option left on the table. To achieve a planned withdrawal we have a further two options: Make the withdrawal public to the civilian population, or keep the date a military secret.

A public date (could be different dates for each province) is more beneficial for all concerned. First of all, a public date will confirm the withdrawal of troops for an area. This will have the immediate effect of any 'freedom fighters' (those Iraqis that genuinely believe their country is going to be occupied forever. These are not Islamic Extremists) ceasing attacks on what they see as occupying troops.

Secondly a public date allows the Iraqi Government to concentrate its attention on a given province. A surge of troops in an area has proven effective in quelling Extremist violence. Consider for a moment the Iraqi Elections - they were relatively peaceful. Also consider the recent surge of US troops and the results - the US deaths in Iraq has hit an 8 month low.

Thirdly a given date will focus the minds of the Iraqi politicians. What is most blocking progress at the moment is in-fighting between various factions. The Kurds, Shiite's, Sunni's are all engaged in a political power struggle. A firm date for withdrawal may just provide the impetus for the resolution of arguments. Even the pullout of troops from one area (the others can follow months later) will provide a powerful example to the rest of the country of what is coming their way.

Should civil war threaten the pull out region, US troops can always be sent back in. Irregardless, Iraqi's will understand that the troops are not there to stay.

Having a two pronged approach of a troop surge, then a withdrawal may be just the key to exiting Iraq successfully. The pressure placed on Iraqi politicians from a planned withdrawal may just be the impetus that is required.

So the only real option is to implement a phased, public withdrawal of troops from Iraq. By ensuring that each area is relatively stable politically and militarily it is possible that an Iraq that ticks each of the three conditions above will emerge.